It’s Your Call
You’re leading a project, and everything is ready to launch, except for one missing report. You’re 80% confident the project will succeed if you go now. But if you wait two more weeks, you may get some additional information to push that confidence closer to 90%.
The Conundrum
Here’s the problem: your competitors won’t wait. Your team is losing momentum. Every extra day costs opportunities you can’t get back.
Smart leaders don’t chase perfection; they decide fast, fix fast, and win more often. The truth is, 100% certainty doesn’t exist. Chasing it only slows you down. What matters is knowing when 80/20 is enough, when 90/10 is safer, and when 95/5 is worth the extra time.
The Certainty Spectrum: 80/20 vs 90/10 vs 95/5 vs 100%
| Certainty Level | Meaning | Time / Productivity Cost | When It Works Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80/20 | You’re 80% sure, but you know 20% is unknown or imperfect. | Fast decisions, higher throughput, quicker learning cycles. Some mistakes, but often fixable. | Every day, business decisions, pilots, marketing tests, product tweaks. |
| 90/10 | You want stronger confidence and more validation. | Slower, but safer. Useful for key moves. | Hiring, partnerships, investments, long-term commitments. |
| 95/5 | Almost complete certainty before moving. | Very high cost in time and missed opportunities. | Life-or-death industries (healthcare, aviation), legal/compliance, irreversible commitments. |
| 100% | The illusion of complete certainty — every variable known, no risk remaining. | Impossible to achieve. Chasing it causes paralysis, delays, and missed opportunities. | Never realistic. Striving for it wastes resources and kills momentum. |
The Challenge of Many Decisions at Once
It’s rarely just one decision on your plate. Most leaders face a flood of small, medium, and large decisions happening simultaneously. This constant stream creates decision fatigue, draining energy, slowing down reactions, and stalling progress.
If you’re not careful, you can waste hours perfecting minor choices while big, strategic calls sit in limbo.
How to manage it:
- Tier Your Decisions
- Tier 1 (Critical, Irreversible, High Stakes): Demand 90/10 or 95/5 certainty. Examples: major hires, acquisitions, compliance.
- Tier 2 (Important but Reversible): Use 80/20. Act fast, course-correct later. Examples: product features, campaign tests.
- Tier 3 (Low Impact Everyday Choices): Automate, delegate, or time-box. Don’t waste brainpower.
- Delegate the Small Stuff
Trust your team with Tier 3 decisions so you’re not the bottleneck. - Batch Routine Decisions
Handle similar choices in blocks of time. Don’t let them scatter across your day and sap focus. - Protect Your Decision Energy
Save your attention for calls only you can make. Reduce micro-decisions with standard processes and defaults.
By structuring your decision flow this way, you keep focus where it matters most — and avoid the trap of being busy without moving forward.
Three Simple, Impactful Tasks You Can Start Today
- Decision Deadlines
For routine or medium-stakes choices, set a firm time limit (e.g., “We’ll decide within 24 hours”). - Daily “Big 3” Priorities
Identify three tasks each morning that matter most — finish those first. - Decision Post-Mortems
After a choice, reflect: Did we need more certainty? Or was 80/20 enough?
Three Core Rules for a Stronger Decision-Making Culture
- Decide Quickly, Correct Quickly
- Encourage Honesty and Openness
- Own Mistakes, Celebrate Successes
Framework: A Quick Decision Filter
- Is it reversible?
- What’s the downside if wrong vs upside if fast?
- What’s the time cost of waiting for more data?
- Am I chasing 100% certainty (which is impossible)?
Wrapping Up
Time and decision-making are inseparable. Every additional percentage of certainty comes at the cost of momentum. The art lies in choosing wisely: moving fast when speed is the advantage, slowing down when the stakes truly demand it, and never falling into the trap of chasing 100%.
Smart leaders know: Decide fast, fix fast, and you’ll win more, more often.
